Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best
by Johan Kestens at BE-CEC, March 27 2025
In a thought-provoking keynote at the Belgian Cybersecurity Executive Conference (BE-CEC) 2025, Johan Kestens, former CIO at ING and CISO at BNY Mellon, offered a sweeping historical and geopolitical perspective on the future of cybersecurity. His talk, titled “Prepare for the Worst, Hope for the Best”, challenged assumptions about peace, prosperity, and the permanence of open digital ecosystems.
Speaking just before General Van Strythem of Belgium’s Cyber Command, Kestens set the tone with humility and clarity: “My objective today is not to present an absolute truth, but rather to encourage critical thinking.”
The End of an Illusion
Kestens began with a stark message: “Goodbye to the Garden of Eden.” For decades, the Western world has lived in an era of relative peace, unprecedented technological progress, and economic globalization. But that age, he argued, is ending.
From historically low interest rates to the exponential growth of IT and genetics, recent decades have offered a kind of economic and technological utopia. Yet, under that surface lay complacency in defense, unchecked financial speculation, and a dangerously short collective memory. Kestens emphasized that current global unrest is not a surprise, but a consequence of long-standing trends.
Power Reshaped: The Winner Wants It All
In his second theme, Kestens drew on the growing assertiveness of global powers—particularly the United States and China. He placed current American protectionism, trade wars, and erratic diplomacy within a broader historical context. Referencing Trump-era policies and American frustration over rising deficits and failed military interventions, Kestens observed, “The sentiment that others are winning at America’s expense is real—and driving profound policy shifts.”
In an age of electric vehicles, battery technologies, and digital supremacy, China’s rapid ascent has further disturbed the global balance.
Every Nation for Itself
Kestens’ third point was perhaps his most sobering: the retreat from multilateralism. Drawing parallels with the Monroe Doctrine and the erosion of global cooperation, he warned of a world sliding into isolationism at the very moment it needs collective action on climate, demographics, and AI regulation.
He reminded the audience that by 2050, half of the world's youth will live in Africa—a continent often overlooked in strategic planning. Without economic opportunity, mass migration and instability are inevitable.
Cybersecurity in a Splintering World
In one of the most resonant sections of his talk, Kestens addressed the future of cybersecurity. Once a domain defined by collaboration and open-source innovation, the digital world is now under threat from fragmentation and distrust. He posed urgent questions:
- Will national firewalls and toll-access internets become the norm?
- Can open-source software survive political and security pressures?
- How will cloud complexity and data sovereignty reshape organizational control?
Kestens drew attention to cyberwarfare as a permanent feature of modern conflict, citing Ukraine as a case study in sustained digital aggression.
Hope in the Face of Uncertainty
Despite the gravity of his analysis, Kestens ended with a message of cautious optimism. Quoting Bob Dylan—“The darkest hour is right before the dawn”—he called on his audience not to give in to fatalism. Crises, he reminded them, often precede reform and resilience.
“We must acknowledge the gravity of the situation while maintaining a forward-looking perspective,” he said.
A Timely Warning
Kestens’ address set the stage for General Van Strythem’s powerful briefing on Europe’s hybrid war realities. Together, the two speeches delivered a coherent message: the age of digital innocence is over. Europe—and the world—must now contend with a hostile cyber landscape, geopolitical power plays, and the collapse of old assumptions.
As the conference concluded, one phrase lingered in the minds of the executives and cyber leaders gathered at Waerboomhof: “Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.”
